Chengriha-Tebboune: The Algerian regime's leadership struggle is coming to an end.
The Algerian regime is experiencing one of its most dangerous transitions since independence, with the conflict between its military and civilian wings escalating to an unprecedented level. The dismissal of the prime minister Nadhir Al-Arabi On June 24, 2023, which was followed by reports of his being placed under arrest. house arrestIt was not just a routine government change, but rather the first shot in the overthrow battle that the military wings are waging against the president. Abdelmadjid Tebboune.
Economic Collapse: The Disaster Looking for a Scapegoat
The stifling economic crisis is the real background to this conflict. According to estimates International Monetary FundThe Algerian economy suffers from a budget deficit exceeding 52% In 2024, worth $62 billion, despite the high gas revenues due to the war in Ukraine. However, oil revenues are no longer sufficient to fill the gap, as estimates indicate. World Bank Until foreign exchange reserves were estimated at $194 billion In 2014, it fell to less than 60 billion dollars today.
This economic collapse, coupled with Unemployment rate nears 15% (And it reaches 30% Among the youth), this is the fuel that fuels popular anger. The regime is in dire need of a scapegoat to blame for its failures, and Arabawi, as prime minister, was the first victim in a charade to distract public opinion from the structural failures of his military regime.
The Aging Governance Trilogy: Faces of the Structural Crisis
The real dilemma of the Algerian regime lies in the obsolescence and fragility of its three pillars of government, which have outlived their political usefulness and lost their legitimacy:
President Tebboune (80 years old): It represents a state of Weakness and humiliation Unprecedented. His speeches, replete with imaginary figures and inaccurate claims (such as the claim to build one million homes in a single year), have become a source of national ridicule. There is almost a national consensus that he lacks the minimum qualifications to lead a country the size of Algeria, and that he is merely a pale civilian facade with no independent decision-making power.
General Said Chengriha (81 years old): The Chief of Staff of the Army, the de facto strongman of the country, is the source of all the elements of popular hatred. In addition to historical accusations against him of genocide During the civil war in the 1990s, reports from organizations such as “Schwengen Lek”“ and Anti-corruption“ His vast wealth and the massive corruption he and his family oversee make him the most hated figure within the military establishment itself.
General Mohamed Mediene (known as Tawfiq): (86 years old): Despite his retirement, the hidden "god" remains. As for General Hassan (78 years old), the director of internal intelligence and one of Tawfiq's closest men, he is merely a shadow and extension of Chengriha, not constituting an independent pole, but rather a tool in the hands of the military leadership.
Overthrow scenario: Prelude to a “vacancy”“
All signs indicate that the machine to overthrow Tebboune has begun to spin without stopping:
Deliberate escalation with France: Instead of calming the situation, the dispute is being escalated to create an external crisis in which the presidency is held accountable for its “failure.”
systematic smear campaign: Media outlets and journalists close to the intelligence services (e.g., Said Bensedira) are given free rein to attack Tebboune, his advisors, and his government with the utmost hostility, in a systematic "demonization" campaign that prepares public opinion to accept his dismissal.
Religious and social targeting: Tebboune is held responsible for agreeing to the terms of the agreement. CEDAW, to present him as a traitor to Islamic and social values, a serious accusation in a conservative environment.
“Deliberate” medical absence“: President Tebboune's prolonged absence and the "leaked" rumors about his medical trip to Germany are an ideal prelude to General Chengriha's announcement that the presidency has been... Vacancy Due to "emergency health conditions," this opens the door to a "safe" end for Tebboune, which could end in house arrest or exile, if he accepts the deal.
Who will win the struggle for survival?
But this scenario is not that simple. Chengriha himself is not safe. His support within the army is limited to a handful of generals, whose number does not exceed fingers, while beneath the surface, there is a simmering anger at his policies and his family's involvement in corruption. The notion that other generals, or even officers from within the military establishment, would coordinate with President Tebboune Lunch with Chengriha before dinner with them“ It's a very realistic scenario, and there are several strong indications of internal discontent against it.
Conclusion: The End of a Regime Without Mourning
Regardless of who will remain and who will fall, all indications confirm that the days of this regime, with its current symbols, It became countableWhether its end comes through a “soft” internal coup or through a new popular explosion (especially with the expectation of oil prices falling to Less than $50 per barrel Next year), change is inevitable. The regime has lost its legitimacy, its competence, and its connection to reality. The only thing that is certain is that the Algerian people, who have suffered for decades under the grip of the military, He won't shed a single tear. The departure of any of these people, rather, their downfall will be considered the first step towards liberating the country from a military regime that has proven its abject failure since its formal independence from France.
About the author
