The conflict between factions in Algeria and its repercussions on the fabricated crisis with France
When faced with a multifaceted crisis, the first rational step is to eliminate impossible or irrelevant hypotheses, before focusing on the most likely explanations. This simple logical rule, inspired by the Sherlock Holmes method, becomes essential for deciphering the renewed crisis between Algeria and France, which is presented to the public as a conflict between two independent states, while at its core it reflects an internal struggle between factions within the Algerian regime, nothing more and nothing less.
Algeria is not a state in the classical sense: a military mafia regime.
To analyze the Algerian-French crisis, traditional political analysis tools must be abandoned. The ruling regime in Algeria is not governed by the rules of diplomacy or international politics, but by the laws of gangs and the "political mafia." Since the 1992 coup, Algeria has transformed into a hybrid regime, dominated by military-financial alliances vying for influence under the guise of the "republic," while the country is run as a closed feudalism.
In this context, any talk of the "national interest" or "Algerian dignity" is merely a propaganda smokescreen. The regime has never acted except for self-interested reasons: either to protect its domestic interests or to appease its foreign masters. The current crisis with France is merely the latest episode in a long series of fabricated crises, used as a tool to export internal crises or settle scores between factions.
Three possibilities explain the crisis: which is closest to the truth?
After eliminating the official narratives filled with hollow slogans, three possible explanations for the current crisis emerge:
The Clash of the Wings: A Proxy War Within the Regime
The crisis is most likely the result of a conflict between two wings:
- France Pavilion“:Extending its reach into the joints of the state, from the presidency (Abdelmadjid Tebboune) to the business and bureaucratic sectors, and which is run as a hidden party loyal to the interests of Paris.
- "Fake Resistance" wing“:Which is usually led by the intelligence wing, specifically under the command of General Jabbar Mahna and Nasser Al-Jinn, and it seeks to employ anti-French rhetoric to improve its position in the internal equation, or, which is a strong possibility, to demonstrate its ability to better serve “Mama France”; that is, it is a struggle for France, not against France!!
This conflict is not new, as it has been repeated in previous crises, such as:
- The case of activist Bouraoui:which French intelligence was accused of smuggling, although evidence points to the involvement of Algerian agencies.
- Tribal fires crisis:which was falsely attributed to a “French-Moroccan-Israeli conspiracy,” while the regime’s fingerprints were clearly on it.
- The trial of the French journalist:On a trivial sporting issue, as a letter to the Elysee.
All these crises coincided with escalating internal or external tensions, and were destined to end once a settlement was reached between the factions.
The Russian Game: Is Shenqriha Pushing for a Confrontation?
General Chengriha is rumored to be loyal to Russia, which could explain the recent escalation against France, especially in light of the Russian-Moroccan rapprochement and Russian preparations to announce a new position on the Western Sahara. However, this explanation suffers from a major flaw: Moscow no longer needs Algeria!
Following the success of the "African Corps" in Libya and Chad, and the decline of Algerian influence in the Sahel, Russia has begun to treat Algeria as a secondary player. Reports even indicate that the Kremlin is reconsidering its approach and preferring cooperation with Morocco as a more stable partner in the region.
Hysterical reaction to French recognition of Moroccan Sahara
This possibility is the weakest, because the Algerian regime lacks the courage to seriously confront France. Had the issue been related to the Sahara, the response would have been more severe from the outset, rather than through a fabricated visa crisis.
Conclusion: France will always win because it is the “center of life” of the Algerian elite.
Regardless of the motives behind the crisis, France's party within the Algerian regime is very strong and will not allow the tension to continue for long. France is not just a foreign country; The alternative homeland“ For the Algerian elite:
- 80% Senior Algerian Officials They own real estate, nationalities or accounts in France.
- More than 60% of foreign investments in Algeria French, especially in the fuel sector.
- French banks It is a safe haven for the money of the Algerian elite.
So, the coming weeks are expected to witness "Deliberate retreat"“ For the regime, after it obtains internal gains, or after hidden pressure from the Elysee. In the end, Algeria is nothing but A functional state“, are managed from abroad, and play pre-written roles in the theater of international conflicts.
The most important question: How many more times will the Algerian people be fooled by this farce?
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