Targeting Hamas leaders in Doha: an official declaration of the Netanyahu government's bankruptcy!!
Whatever the reasons behind the recent Israeli intelligence operation targeting Hamas's political leadership in the Qatari capital, Doha, it confirms only one thing: the Netanyahu government's stumbling in its quest to achieve a "victory image" that would extricate it from the quagmire of its declared objectives in Gaza, in response to the "Al-Aqsa Flood," thus signaling the imminent end of the operation. The intelligence operation "failed" due to its inability to carry out the planned assassination of Hamas's influential political leadership during its supposed meeting in Doha. The announced victims so far have been limited to the son of Hamas's leader in Gaza, Khalil al-Hayya, his office director, and three security personnel who were at the targeted location. None of the targeted leaders were among the victims. Because the incident is of such high importance, we will quickly review the balance of Israeli gains and losses, for which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu bears personal responsibility, in the absence of any political or military figure who possesses even a fraction of the influence the Israeli Prime Minister currently wields in both the government and the opposition.
We begin by listing the gains, as they are almost limited to one single gain that would have been a cause for celebration in Israel had the operation succeeded. This gain would have been evidence of Israeli intelligence's "long arm," especially if it were added to previous similar operations, including the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and his deputy Hashem Safieddine, as well as Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in the heart of the Iranian capital, Tehran, and prominent leader Saleh al-Arouri, as well as Hamas military leaders from Yahya Sinwar to Mohammed Deif, not to mention the elite of Iran's military leadership and a constellation of scientists from its nuclear program. Despite the symbolic significance of the aforementioned names and their profound influence on the situation, the targeted groups have, to varying degrees, succeeded in replacing them with second-tier leaders, which raises significant questions about the strategic value of these victories. Since the objective of the latest operation has not yet been achieved, the justifications for Israeli celebration will remain postponed, at least for the time being, without diminishing Israel's intelligence capabilities.
Moving on to calculating the losses, we find that they are so enormous that they do not leave much room for most analysts and observers without falling prey to various “conspiracy theories.” Because the Israeli leadership’s failure to take them into account leaves no room—except for the various conspiracy theories—for any other explanation: that Netanyahu and his government are in a state of complete confusion, utter frustration, and utter inability to achieve any of their declared objectives for the Gaza war: freeing the hostages, eliminating Hamas, displacing the population of the Strip, preventing any Palestinian party from ruling Gaza and the West Bank in the future, and even eliminating any chance of talking about the “outdated” two-state solution! Before we detail the inventory of the strategic Israeli losses resulting from the failed operation, we will only point to the most prominent conspiracy theories that have proliferated in the hours following the operation, none of which we personally tend to endorse. These include the idea that Qatar itself was complicit in the operation to relieve itself of the burden of the Hamas leadership’s presence on its soil. From the fact that news of the operation was leaked by elements in the White House to warn Hamas leaders via Qatar, in protest against US President Trump's blind support for the actions and approaches of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, with the aim of avoiding the worst if the operation succeeded; to the fact that President Trump himself was the one who encouraged Netanyahu to carry out the operation, and who ordered its leak to the Qataris, in order to thwart and embarrass Netanyahu and hasten his departure under pressure from within Israel!
Returning to the most prominent Israeli losses, we can begin by clearly defining the only logical objective of the operation: to halt all talk of a ceasefire in Gaza based on the latest US-Israeli proposal, which calls for a comprehensive deal that would release all prisoners and pave the way for an end to the war. It is well known that all previous US initiatives lacked both neutrality and seriousness, despite a potentially genuine US desire to end the war. However, this desire was not currently met with conditions related to the day after, as there is no clear vision for how to disarm Hamas and thus end its military presence in the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu's declared desire, despite all US statements, is against any talk of ending the war now or in the future. Therefore, the recent operation was one of the means to achieve this objective, by pushing the future Hamas leadership (if the operation succeeds) to reject any deal with Israel to end the war. Along with it, the Qatari leadership would inevitably refuse to continue playing the role of mediator, given the blatant violation of its sovereignty. This has been achieved, albeit temporarily, as the US announced the suspension of its mediation efforts until the situation becomes clearer.
The first loss is that the Israeli operation violates not only the sovereignty of Qatar, on whose territory it was carried out, but also of all the Arab countries whose airspace the attacking Israeli aircraft are supposed to have violated on their way to carry out the operation from the Qatari border, or over whose airspace. The distance separating Israel and Qatar is approximately 1,800 kilometers, and therefore these aircraft can only reach Qatar via other countries surrounding it. This requires these countries together to consider an appropriate collective response to the violation of their sovereignty, at least to save face.
The second loss concerns relations with two Gulf states with diplomatic ties to Israel: the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Targeting a Gulf sister country necessitates that they condemn the operation in the strongest terms, which is exactly what both countries did. Gulf solidarity is meaningless without such a unified stance. A unified stance could prompt the two countries concerned to suspend relations with Netanyahu's government, if internal Gulf discussions lead to agreement on this demand.
In connection with the previous point, the latest operation is expected to contribute to the "burial" of any future steps towards rapprochement with Saudi Arabia, at least with the government headed by Netanyahu, who, incidentally, shows no significant interest in normalizing relations with the Kingdom, except by way of dictation from a position of power, which there is insufficient justification to imagine that Saudi Arabia and its leadership are willing to submit to.
Indeed, there are realistic grounds for believing that the Kingdom of Morocco, should a unified Gulf stance be adopted against Israeli aggression, would, out of solidarity with its Gulf brethren, adopt a stance similar to what these countries would agree upon, such as suspending diplomatic relations, withdrawing ambassadors, or other measures!
The fourth or fifth loss relates to the image of the United States itself, whose military bases are located throughout the Arabian Gulf region, including Qatar, and which are theoretically supposed to be a means of protection against attacks that these countries may be subjected to from any party. A military violation such as the one that occurred during the Israeli operation, without US forces operating in Qatar taking action, casts a heavy shadow of doubt on their roles and prompts these countries to begin considering "other ways" to protect themselves.
This last point could prompt the affected Gulf states, if it is proven that there is a US green light for the Israeli operation, to exert real pressure on the US government, specifically President Trump himself, using the billions they have pledged to invest in the US over the coming years. They could make the implementation of these promises conditional on real US pressure on Israel to completely halt this absurd war on Gaza, even if that comes by removing Netanyahu and choosing a replacement for him, something the US could achieve if it so desired.
Another loss that can be cited here relates to Egypt and Turkey hardening their positions toward the Netanyahu government, and their rapid increase in military spending and the modernization of their arsenal, given that Israel has a hostile government whose next military adventures are uncertain. Consequently, the two countries have shifted from a position of practical neutrality to a position of greater preparedness and hostility toward Israel, which is the last thing Israel, mired in the Gaza quagmire, needs.
The final expected loss relates to the strengthening of Israel's image globally, particularly among Europeans, as a state out of control. This will garner additional support from countries calling for economic sanctions against it among European partners, who are more understanding of Israel's barbaric behavior in the Gaza Strip and the region as a whole. If the European economic boycott is implemented, its impact will be severe on Israel, already economically exhausted, given that the European Union is Israel's primary economic partner.
In conclusion, many of these losses may seem theoretical to some, but even if they are treated as mere possibilities, they are strong possibilities, the realization of which would lead Israel to pay a heavy price that does not justify the marginal gains that could be achieved if the strike were successful. Therefore, whether we believe in conspiracy theories to explain what happened or reject them, with sound reasoning, we can only arrive at the conclusion with which we began: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and behind him the far-right government, and indeed the entire Israeli political scene, are in a state of crisis, struggling to descend from the tree of his aggression on Gaza, unable to provide a ladder to descend from this tree with the image of victory he desires. This must, above all, restore his deterrent capacity, which has been severely damaged, for the first time since the establishment of the entity more than 77 years ago!
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